For many years, my household has operated on a computer technology “hand-me-down” policy. My wife buys the latest and greatest. When something better comes along, I get a hand-me-down. Sometimes this happens more rapidly than other times.

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In 1968, when I was much younger than I am today, Paul Ehrlich’s book The Population Bomb was published. I remember being quite alarmed at the time. One result was that wife and I who had wanted to have four children decided to adopt two mixed race children to go along with the two children we already head.

I recently read the following interview of Paul Ehrlich:

All of us routinely make forecasts about our possible futures. For example, I wake up in the morning and reach to my dresser top to pick up my glasses. I “forecast” that they will be where I usually leave them. Once in a great while they have been moved by one of my cats—indeed, may be lying on the floor. Somewhat similarly, I go to my closet and reach for a shirt that I forecast will be there. I put on my shoes and tell my fingers to undertake the somewhat magical process called tying my shoes. I forecast that this tying process will happen correctly. (Sometimes it doesn’t.)

A few minutes later I am reading a newspaper, eating breakfast, and planning my day. That is, I am in the process of creating my future. When I plan and make decisions about implementing my plans, I forecast that I will successfully carry out my plans. I can analyze possible results of successfully carrying out my plans—that is, making my forecasts come true.

Some of us are better at planning and forecasting than others. And, there is always the “fickle finger of fate” that can mess with well thought out forecasts.